EU no more

EU, Europe no more

– Unity of the weak-

Crisis either strengthen relationships or crush them. The spirit of EU has been on test many times and so far it failed every time. Not so long ago we made jokes about Britain running away into its den denying its young generations the freedom of movement and the unity of market so it would reach into the unknown and to tip over into miserable failure instead. But was Britain just clairvoyant? Like a rebel child that was lucky enough not to get killed by its impulsiveness whose like turned around and could now be the beacon of light and an inspiration and possibly a role model to the other fallen rebel youngsters? Maybe it is true that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. What was the main palpable reason Britain left EU? Frustration. It got tired of being invisible, because that just isn’t in the nature of that once a leader nation. The first time cultural integration has proven to be the biggest source of frustration and disengagement from the project where Europe failed to impersonate America. Because sometimes it seems that this is all EU is, a copycat of USA, and not such a good one. I am not saying that because I think EU is a terrible project however I believe that such a contemporary project cannot be applied on an old world. Or simply, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, as the Americans put it well.

The forefathers of the American nation went into the unknown wanting to create a new world of ideals they believed in, or at least that was what they said. The general idea was what they had in common, one nation, same values, joint decision making. The only joint interest forefathers of the European Union had was trading and that is whether we wish to admitt it or not, one hell of a selfish and cold hearted deal. What separated UK from EU was that very same cold hearted deal, trading, or at least that was what they said. Deals which are not based on becoming a better nation or at least a work in progress at least on paper, lack in depth and quality and sooner or later lack in longevity. Although cultural identity has so far seemed like an accessory has proven to be exactly the glue EU repetitively lacks in when going gets tough. All the children cannot play together in unison when each and every one of them brings their own security blanket in the form of governments, laws, parliaments, sponsorships, historical chips on their shoulders, old grudges and wounds, to a joint playground. Does that mean that EU legislations should have been more strict with more direct vertical and horizontal effect interventions in the states’ law system? Were the interventions too loose or interests too weak? It is quite possible that such deeper interventions would bind the member states tighter to a joint cell and would all be forced to push in for a more procreative direction where boundaries for trade, culture and growth would have been removed rather than tightened, which eventually would not stifle any of the member states. Member states that grow together, stay together. Would that be our new slogan then? Maybe letting go of the old was all that was needed. Now we will never know. What is certain now is that UK has another historical moment and that is to be a pioneer again. The first to leave, the first to start anew, the first to inspire in creating its own rules including so desperately wanted trade deals. The divorce of that marriage resonated strongly in the world, questioning what will happen next in the foreign policy creation and joint policy creation as well. Many questions are open without a definite solution in sight. Such as the enlargement of EU or migration phenomenon. For which sailor would want to join the sinking ship now? Surprisingly, there are still many of them knocking at the door. In my country people say “Every time we join somewhere, it all starts falling apart.” Even though there is some truth to that, it is nonetheless a topic for a different post. But has the fall of the family began with the increase of its family members? For there are only so many mouths to feed and the house was becoming too tight.

2018 was a recession year for Italy and the flakiness about the EU remain was already snowballing heavily. Now with the pandemic’s final blow and EU’s reluctance to help one of its own, maybe we are looking at the potential trigger for leave Italy, or conveniently, Exitaly. What is hiding behind the massive Italian frustration? Is it again, trade? And where have we seen that before?

European Commission was displeased about Italian government for not improving its structural balance by 0,6% GDP in 2020, with its net being the prime expenditure and the growth by 1,9% instead of decreased as advised. Italy is a big market and does not nor should it live solely or tourism as dependant poor small countries do and for the sustainability of that market it needs trade deals. With the new Italian government promoting extension of social benefits for citizens, not being inclined to banking industry, not supporting EU austerity measures, with one out of three people supporting leave, Exitaly could really just be a logical step. Reservations towards EU institutions are no longer reserved for the right wing parties in the member states,  because after failure to deal with migration phenomenon, a lot of issues are turning to enigmas. To name a few very important ones, such as the future of Euro currency, member states pretty much forced to deal with problems individually with a late or no help at all from Brussels, EU suing Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic for not accepting the quota of refugees, elitism of the leading EU countries turning against each other, the role and structure of EU institutions being as vague as ever before. All of these problems need the development of joint strategies which are efficient and beneficial for all Member States. So far the EU happy family seems like an abusive relationship.

In March 2020 Italy singed a trade deal of New Silk Road with China becoming the first developed economy to sign up to China’s investment programme, bringing a lot of concerns to the Member States. This Belt and Road Initiative involves a way of Chinese funding major infrastructure projects around the globe with the aim to speed up the flow of Chinese goods around the world.  EU responded by issuing a joint statement on “China growing economic power and political influence” and the need to review the relations to ensure a fair competition and equal market access. It all points to massive changes outside and inside. European Union must change, adapt and react better to the fluctuating world or will eventually turn into a failed project.

If Italy leaves EU, it is not unreal that other will follow. Soon we, the small dependant states will be left scratching our heads wondering what was the exact turning point that led to it. It is reasonable to conclude that not many states would appreciate a Union of weak states and its questionable political power.

Are the member states going single again?

Is there EU no more for me and you?